Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
León W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 3-1 (8%), 1-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
León W 5-2 Puebla W
Original prediction
León W
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.17 | 77.8% | 61.9% | -16.0 pts |
| Draw | 6.73 | 13.5% | 18.8% | 5.3 pts |
| Away | 10.47 | 8.7% | 19.3% | 10.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.17 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-16.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.3–18%
- 3.1–17%
Predicted outcome
León W
Probability
61.9%
Model confidence
61.9%
León W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
León WLWLLW
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Puebla WWLLLL
GF 8 · GA 23 · avg 1.60/4.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
León WPuebla W
60.0Attack53.3
46.7Defence0.0
40.0Form20.0
49.5Power24.3
2.80xG1.49