Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
América W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (10%), 1-1 (8%), 1-3 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
León W 0-5 América W
Original prediction
América W
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 8 September 2026 at 09:51 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 8.85 | 10.2% | 17.0% | 6.8 pts |
| Draw | 5.72 | 15.8% | 18.0% | 2.2 pts |
| Away | 1.22 | 74.0% | 65.0% | -9.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.22 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–210%
- 2.1–18%
- 3.1–38%
Predicted outcome
América W
Probability
65.0%
Model confidence
65.0%
América W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
León WLWWLW
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
América WDWWWW
GF 19 · GA 6 · avg 3.80/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
León WAmérica W
62.5Attack100.0
50.0Defence70.8
50.0Form91.7
54.5Power83.2
1.25xG2.52