Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Leixoes · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Leixoes 0-0 Amarante, with an exact score probability of 18%.
Prediction record
Final result
Leixoes 3-1 Amarante
Original prediction
Leixoes
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.85 | 49.6% | 39.1% | -10.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.39 | 27.2% | 30.7% | 3.5 pts |
| Away | 3.96 | 23.2% | 30.3% | 7.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.85 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.5 pts
Projected Score
Leixoes 0–0 Amarante
Exact score probability: 18%
Predicted outcome
Leixoes
Probability
39.1%
Model confidence
39.1%
Leixoes has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LeixoesWLWLW
GF 11 · GA 7 · avg 2.20/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
AmaranteWDLLL
GF 2 · GA 5 · avg 0.40/1.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
LeixoesAmarante
28.4Attack33.3
62.7Defence33.3
36.3Form0.0
44.9Power23.7
0.94xG0.84