Leistonvs
Guiseley AFC
COMPLETEDEngland · FA Cup · 10/17/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Leiston · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Leiston 0-3 Guiseley AFC
Original prediction
Leiston
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 20:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.61 | 25.2% | 39.7% | 14.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.79 | 24.0% | 24.3% | 0.3 pts |
| Away | 1.80 | 50.7% | 36.0% | -14.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
14.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Leiston
Probability
39.7%
Model confidence
39.7%
Leiston has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LeistonDWLLL
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Guiseley AFCWWWLW
GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 1.60/0.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
LeistonGuiseley AFC
83.3Attack75.0
83.3Defence66.7
83.3Form83.3
81.3Power76.6
1.93xG1.47