Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Leiston · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Leiston 0-3 Dartford
Original prediction
Leiston
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.45 | 36.3% | 38.8% | 2.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.35 | 26.6% | 27.3% | 0.6 pts |
| Away | 2.40 | 37.0% | 33.9% | -3.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Leiston
Probability
38.8%
Model confidence
38.8%
Leiston has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LeistonLWWWD
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
DartfordWWWWD
GF 12 · GA 3 · avg 2.40/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
LeistonDartford
33.3Attack0.0
44.4Defence66.7
44.4Form0.0
43.8Power23.7
1.63xG1.35