Leistonvs
Coventry United
COMPLETEDEngland · FA Cup · 10/3/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Leiston · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Leiston 3-1 Coventry United
Original prediction
Leiston
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:42 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.66 | 54.7% | 43.6% | -11.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.00 | 22.7% | 27.1% | 4.4 pts |
| Away | 4.01 | 22.6% | 29.3% | 6.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.66 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Leiston
Probability
43.6%
Model confidence
43.6%
Leiston has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LeistonLLLWW
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
Coventry UnitedWWLLL
GF 8 · GA 11 · avg 1.60/2.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
LeistonCoventry United
77.8Attack50.0
88.9Defence83.3
77.8Form100.0
78.5Power83.3
1.84xG1.36