Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Leicester · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (11%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Leicester 2-0 Plymouth
Original prediction
Leicester
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.91 | 48.9% | 39.6% | -9.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.73 | 25.1% | 27.7% | 2.6 pts |
| Away | 3.59 | 26.1% | 32.7% | 6.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.91 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Leicester
Probability
39.6%
Model confidence
39.6%
Leicester has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LeicesterDLLDW
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
PlymouthWLDLW
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
LeicesterPlymouth
22.2Attack44.4
66.7Defence55.6
22.2Form44.4
40.2Power49.5
1.20xG1.15