Leicestervs
Peterborough
COMPLETEDEngland · League One · 10/10/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Leicester · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (13%), 1-1 (13%), 2-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Leicester 1-3 Peterborough
Original prediction
Leicester
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 06:15 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.55 | 60.2% | 50.7% | -9.4 pts |
| Draw | 4.51 | 20.7% | 25.9% | 5.2 pts |
| Away | 4.86 | 19.2% | 23.4% | 4.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–013%
- 2.1–113%
- 3.2–012%
Predicted outcome
Leicester
Probability
50.7%
Model confidence
50.7%
Leicester has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 11 · avg 2.40/2.20
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60