Leicestervs
Oxford United
COMPLETEDEngland · League One · 9/5/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Leicester · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Leicester 0-4 Oxford United
Original prediction
Leicester
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:17 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.68 | 55.4% | 45.6% | -9.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.87 | 24.1% | 26.9% | 2.8 pts |
| Away | 4.54 | 20.5% | 27.6% | 7.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
Leicester
Probability
45.6%
Model confidence
45.6%
Leicester has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60