Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Leicester · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (11%), 0-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Leicester 2-1 Doncaster
Original prediction
Leicester
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:39 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.84 | 50.5% | 37.3% | -13.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.85 | 24.1% | 26.2% | 2.0 pts |
| Away | 3.66 | 25.4% | 36.5% | 11.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.84 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.0–111%
Predicted outcome
Leicester
Probability
37.3%
Model confidence
37.3%
Leicester has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LeicesterLLWDW
GF 13 · GA 10 · avg 2.60/2.00
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
DoncasterWWWLL
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
LeicesterDoncaster
41.7Attack37.5
41.7Defence62.5
37.5Form37.5
42.4Power48.0
1.07xG1.23