Leicester City U21vs
AFC Bournemouth U21
COMPLETEDEngland · Premier League Cup · 9/4/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
AFC Bournemouth U21 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-3 (9%), 1-2 (8%), 0-3 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Leicester City U21 0-1 AFC Bournemouth U21
Original prediction
AFC Bournemouth U21
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.99 | 45.4% | 22.2% | -23.2 pts |
| Draw | 4.08 | 22.2% | 17.6% | -4.5 pts |
| Away | 2.79 | 32.4% | 60.1% | 27.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.79 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
27.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–39%
- 2.1–28%
- 3.0–38%
Predicted outcome
AFC Bournemouth U21
Probability
60.1%
Model confidence
60.1%
AFC Bournemouth U21 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 11 · avg 1.80/2.20
GF 9 · GA 12 · avg 1.80/2.40