Legionvs
Tartu Kalev
COMPLETEDEstonia · Esiliiga B · 9/10/2026, 2:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Tartu Kalev · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-4 (10%), 1-5 (9%), 1-3 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Legion 1-2 Tartu Kalev
Original prediction
Tartu Kalev
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.55 | 16.3% | 8.4% | -7.8 pts |
| Draw | 5.50 | 16.4% | 10.2% | -6.2 pts |
| Away | 1.34 | 67.3% | 81.4% | 14.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.34 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
14.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–410%
- 2.1–59%
- 3.1–39%
Predicted outcome
Tartu Kalev
Probability
81.4%
Model confidence
81.4%
Tartu Kalev has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 15 · avg 0.80/3.00
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20