Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Narva U21 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-4 (13%), 0-5 (11%), 0-3 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Legion 1-2 Narva U21
Original prediction
Narva U21
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 06:16 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 16.85 | 5.4% | 14.9% | 9.5 pts |
| Draw | 8.62 | 10.5% | 17.3% | 6.8 pts |
| Away | 1.08 | 84.1% | 67.8% | -16.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.08 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-16.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–413%
- 2.0–511%
- 3.0–311%
Predicted outcome
Narva U21
Probability
67.8%
Model confidence
67.8%
Narva U21 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LegionLDLLL
GF 3 · GA 23 · avg 0.60/4.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
Narva U21WWWWW
GF 9 · GA 1 · avg 1.80/0.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
LegionNarva U21
29.9Attack79.3
0.0Defence59.8
18.4Form69.0
17.9Power67.7
0.76xG4.50