Legia Warszawavs
Lech Poznan
COMPLETEDPoland · Ekstraklasa · 10/25/2026, 4:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Legia Warszawa · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (10%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Legia Warszawa 1-2 Lech Poznan
Original prediction
Legia Warszawa
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.52 | 36.7% | 37.6% | 0.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.41 | 27.1% | 25.6% | -1.5 pts |
| Away | 2.55 | 36.2% | 36.8% | 0.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–010%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Legia Warszawa
Probability
37.6%
Model confidence
37.6%
Legia Warszawa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 15 · GA 5 · avg 3.00/1.00
GF 13 · GA 9 · avg 2.60/1.80