Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Mallorca · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Leganes 0-1 Mallorca, with an exact score probability of 24%.
Prediction record
Final result
Leganes 1-1 Mallorca
Original prediction
Mallorca
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 1 October 2026 at 12:23 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.14 | 29.5% | 22.9% | -6.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.11 | 29.8% | 30.3% | 0.4 pts |
| Away | 2.29 | 40.6% | 46.9% | 6.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.11 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.3 pts
Projected Score
Leganes 0–1 Mallorca
Exact score probability: 24%
Predicted outcome
Mallorca
Probability
46.9%
Model confidence
46.9%
Mallorca has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LeganesLLLLW
GF 3 · GA 12 · avg 0.60/2.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
MallorcaDWDLW
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
LeganesMallorca
20.0Attack40.0
50.0Defence83.3
36.7Form60.0
38.8Power61.9
0.39xG1.17