Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Leganes · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Leganes 1-0 Eldense, with an exact score probability of 21%.
Prediction record
Final result
Leganes 1-0 Eldense
Original prediction
Leganes
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.89 | 49.1% | 57.9% | 8.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.39 | 27.4% | 26.4% | -1.1 pts |
| Away | 3.97 | 23.4% | 15.7% | -7.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.89 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.7 pts
Projected Score
Leganes 1–0 Eldense
Exact score probability: 21%
Predicted outcome
Leganes
Probability
57.9%
Model confidence
57.9%
Leganes has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LeganesWDDWW
GF 7 · GA 2 · avg 1.40/0.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
EldenseDLLLL
GF 4 · GA 11 · avg 0.80/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
LeganesEldense
44.4Attack36.5
78.6Defence55.6
58.7Form39.7
61.2Power46.0
1.33xG0.48