Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cordoba · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Leganes 0-1 Cordoba
Original prediction
Cordoba
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 07:36 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.38 | 39.2% | 35.0% | -4.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.39 | 27.5% | 27.1% | -0.5 pts |
| Away | 2.80 | 33.3% | 37.9% | 4.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.80 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Cordoba
Probability
37.9%
Model confidence
37.9%
Cordoba has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LeganesLLLWL
GF 3 · GA 13 · avg 0.60/2.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
CordobaLWLWL
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
LeganesCordoba
22.2Attack51.9
48.1Defence25.9
40.7Form33.3
40.3Power40.3
1.26xG1.43