Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Castellón · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Leganes 0-1 Castellón, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Leganes 0-2 Castellón
Original prediction
Castellón
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.09 | 30.2% | 28.4% | -1.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.30 | 28.2% | 29.7% | 1.5 pts |
| Away | 2.24 | 41.6% | 41.9% | 0.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.24 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.3 pts
Projected Score
Leganes 0–1 Castellón
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Castellón
Probability
41.9%
Model confidence
41.9%
Castellón has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LeganesWLDWW
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
CastellónWWWWD
GF 11 · GA 2 · avg 2.20/0.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
LeganesCastellón
33.3Attack66.7
72.2Defence88.9
61.1Form88.9
58.7Power81.2
0.76xG1.19