Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Rylands · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Leek Town 3-3 Rylands
Original prediction
Rylands
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 22 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.82 | 31.6% | 33.0% | 1.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.52 | 25.3% | 24.5% | -0.8 pts |
| Away | 2.07 | 43.0% | 42.5% | -0.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.52 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–17%
Predicted outcome
Rylands
Probability
42.5%
Model confidence
42.5%
Rylands has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Leek TownWWLLW
GF 12 · GA 6 · avg 2.40/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
RylandsWWWLD
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Leek TownRylands
63.3Attack51.5
33.3Defence57.6
30.0Form57.6
43.7Power55.9
1.67xG1.99