Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bootle · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Leek Town 4-1 Bootle
Original prediction
Bootle
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 October 2026 at 00:47 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.36 | 38.0% | 35.2% | -2.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.77 | 23.8% | 26.0% | 2.2 pts |
| Away | 2.35 | 38.2% | 38.8% | 0.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Bootle
Probability
38.8%
Model confidence
38.8%
Bootle has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Leek TownWDDWW
GF 11 · GA 7 · avg 2.20/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
BootleWWWLL
GF 15 · GA 4 · avg 3.00/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
Leek TownBootle
66.7Attack100.0
100.0Defence88.9
100.0Form100.0
88.7Power96.3
1.55xG1.75