Leek Townvs
Ashton United
COMPLETEDEngland · Non League Premier - Northern · 10/10/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Leek Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Leek Town 2-2 Ashton United
Original prediction
Leek Town
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.22 | 40.5% | 37.3% | -3.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.47 | 25.8% | 26.4% | 0.5 pts |
| Away | 2.66 | 33.7% | 36.3% | 2.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.47 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Leek Town
Probability
37.3%
Model confidence
37.3%
Leek Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 9 · avg 2.00/1.80
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60