Leeds United U21vs
Newcastle United U21
COMPLETEDEngland · Premier League 2 Division One · 9/19/2026, 11:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Leeds United U21 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-1 (8%), 4-1 (7%), 3-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Leeds United U21 2-0 Newcastle United U21
Original prediction
Leeds United U21
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.27 | 39.5% | 52.0% | 12.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.79 | 23.7% | 21.5% | -2.2 pts |
| Away | 2.44 | 36.8% | 26.5% | -10.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.27 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
12.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–18%
- 2.4–17%
- 3.3–27%
Predicted outcome
Leeds United U21
Probability
52.0%
Model confidence
52.0%
Leeds United U21 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 10 · avg 1.80/2.00
GF 5 · GA 11 · avg 1.00/2.20