Lechia Gdanskvs
Stal Mielec
COMPLETEDPoland · I Liga · 9/19/2026, 10:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Stal Mielec · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lechia Gdansk 7-1 Stal Mielec
Original prediction
Stal Mielec
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.92 | 47.2% | 34.2% | -13.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.62 | 25.0% | 25.4% | 0.4 pts |
| Away | 3.27 | 27.7% | 40.4% | 12.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
12.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–27%
Predicted outcome
Stal Mielec
Probability
40.4%
Model confidence
40.4%
Stal Mielec has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20
GF 5 · GA 12 · avg 1.00/2.40