Lechia Gdanskvs
Arka Gdynia
COMPLETEDPoland · I Liga · 10/18/2026, 6:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lechia Gdansk · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lechia Gdansk 2-1 Arka Gdynia
Original prediction
Lechia Gdansk
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 01:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.16 | 42.0% | 51.5% | 9.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.48 | 26.1% | 22.6% | -3.5 pts |
| Away | 2.84 | 31.9% | 25.9% | -6.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.16 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
Lechia Gdansk
Probability
51.5%
Model confidence
51.5%
Lechia Gdansk has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 15 · GA 6 · avg 3.00/1.20
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00