Lech Poznanvs
Sunderland
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Europa League · 10/22/2026, 4:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sunderland · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lech Poznan 1-1 Sunderland
Original prediction
Sunderland
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 06:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.56 | 20.7% | 35.0% | 14.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.91 | 24.1% | 25.6% | 1.5 pts |
| Away | 1.71 | 55.2% | 39.4% | -15.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.91 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-15.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Sunderland
Probability
39.4%
Model confidence
39.4%
Sunderland has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 17 · GA 9 · avg 3.40/1.80
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00