Lech Poznanvs
Raków Częstochowa
COMPLETEDPoland · Ekstraklasa · 9/6/2026, 3:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lech Poznan · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-0 (11%), 1-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lech Poznan 1-0 Raków Częstochowa
Original prediction
Lech Poznan
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:21 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.60 | 58.0% | 53.2% | -4.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.21 | 22.1% | 24.6% | 2.6 pts |
| Away | 4.65 | 19.9% | 22.2% | 2.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.60 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–011%
- 3.1–011%
Predicted outcome
Lech Poznan
Probability
53.2%
Model confidence
53.2%
Lech Poznan has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 19 · GA 5 · avg 3.80/1.00
GF 8 · GA 14 · avg 1.60/2.80