Lech Poznanvs
Radomiak Radom
COMPLETEDPoland · Ekstraklasa · 9/20/2026, 6:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lech Poznan · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (12%), 1-1 (11%), 1-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lech Poznan 5-1 Radomiak Radom
Original prediction
Lech Poznan
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.34 | 69.0% | 57.8% | -11.1 pts |
| Draw | 5.15 | 17.9% | 22.8% | 4.8 pts |
| Away | 7.05 | 13.1% | 19.4% | 6.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.34 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–012%
- 2.1–111%
- 3.1–011%
Predicted outcome
Lech Poznan
Probability
57.8%
Model confidence
57.8%
Lech Poznan has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
GF 3 · GA 3 · avg 0.60/0.60