Lech Poznanvs
Korona Kielce
COMPLETEDPoland · Ekstraklasa · 10/18/2026, 3:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lech Poznan · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (14%), 1-0 (13%), 3-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lech Poznan 6-1 Korona Kielce
Original prediction
Lech Poznan
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 01:47 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.44 | 64.0% | 68.7% | 4.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.48 | 20.6% | 19.0% | -1.6 pts |
| Away | 5.97 | 15.4% | 12.3% | -3.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.44 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–014%
- 2.1–013%
- 3.3–010%
Predicted outcome
Lech Poznan
Probability
68.7%
Model confidence
68.7%
Lech Poznan has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 12 · avg 2.20/2.40
GF 6 · GA 12 · avg 1.20/2.40