Lech Poznanvs
Bayer Leverkusen
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Europa League · 10/15/2026, 4:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bayer Leverkusen · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lech Poznan 0-4 Bayer Leverkusen
Original prediction
Bayer Leverkusen
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 06:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.16 | 18.4% | 36.4% | 18.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.63 | 20.5% | 25.4% | 4.9 pts |
| Away | 1.55 | 61.1% | 38.2% | -22.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.55 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-22.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–07%
Predicted outcome
Bayer Leverkusen
Probability
38.2%
Model confidence
38.2%
Bayer Leverkusen has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 10 · avg 2.40/2.00
GF 14 · GA 5 · avg 2.80/1.00