UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League
Wednesday, 29 July 202618:00Updated today
Lech Poznan

Lech Poznan

Home
W
vs
18:00
Aarhus

Aarhus

Away
W
Stadion Poznan
GoalVio prediction
67% confidence
Lech Poznan(67%)
Most likely exact score2-1
Win probability
Lech Poznan
67%
Draw
20%
Aarhus
12%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Lech Poznan
94
Aarhus
73
Defence
Lech Poznan
66
Aarhus
91
Momentum
Lech Poznan
100
Aarhus
100
Danger (xG)
Lech Poznan
2.70
Aarhus
1.80
Both teams to score
Yes
Over 2.5 goals
Yes
xG for (Lech Poznan)
2.70
avg per match
xG for (Aarhus)
1.80
avg per match
xG against (Lech Poznan)
0.90
avg per match
xG against (Aarhus)
0.00
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
Lech PoznanLech Poznan
W
AarhusAarhus
WD

Probability breakdown

67% confidence
Lech Poznan67%
Draw20%
Aarhus12%

Lech Poznan leads with 67% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Match insights

Lech Poznan head into this in UEFA Champions League fixture at Stadion Poznan in mixed form (W), while Aarhus arrive in mixed form (W). Lech Poznan have a 100% win rate across their last 1 matches, compared to 100% for Aarhus over 1 games.

Both sides are defensively strong — Lech Poznan (66/100) and Aarhus (91/100) are both rated highly at the back. The model expects a tight, low-scoring affair with defences on top.

Lech Poznan have limited home data in the engine at this stage. Aarhus have limited away data in the engine at this stage.

Aarhus have generated 1.27 xG per game recently while conceding 1.76 xG per match, underperforming their xG in 100% of recent matches.

There is no head-to-head data between Lech Poznan and Aarhus in the engine.

The GoalVio engine projects Lech Poznan to win with 67% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 2-1. Win probabilities: Lech Poznan 6725%, Draw 2037%, Aarhus 1238%. BTTS: Yes, Over 2.5: Yes.

Recent form

Lech Poznan

Lech Poznan

W
@ Radomiak Radom
16 May 2026
31
Aarhus

Aarhus

W
vs AC Horsens
15 Jul 2026
20
D
vs FC Midtjylland
26 Apr 2026
00
xG 1.3

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Lech Poznan vs Aarhus?

GoalVio's model predicts Lech Poznan to win with 67% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Lech Poznan vs Aarhus?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 2-1.

Will both teams score in Lech Poznan vs Aarhus?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: Yes — both teams are expected to score.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Lech Poznan vs Aarhus?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: Yes.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more