Lech Poznań IIvs
Polonia Środa
COMPLETEDPoland · III Liga - Group 2 · 10/18/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lech Poznań II · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lech Poznań II 2-3 Polonia Środa
Original prediction
Lech Poznań II
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 8 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.77 | 32.5% | 41.1% | 8.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.72 | 24.1% | 25.4% | 1.3 pts |
| Away | 2.07 | 43.4% | 33.5% | -9.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Lech Poznań II
Probability
41.1%
Model confidence
41.1%
Lech Poznań II has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
GF 12 · GA 5 · avg 2.40/1.00