Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lecco · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (14%), 1-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lecco 1-1 Alcione
Original prediction
Lecco
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 17:56 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.01 | 45.2% | 41.4% | -3.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.24 | 28.0% | 28.6% | 0.6 pts |
| Away | 3.38 | 26.8% | 29.9% | 3.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.24 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–014%
- 3.1–013%
Predicted outcome
Lecco
Probability
41.4%
Model confidence
41.4%
Lecco has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LeccoDLDWW
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
AlcioneDDLDW
GF 8 · GA 11 · avg 1.60/2.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
LeccoAlcione
28.6Attack42.9
61.9Defence42.9
38.1Form38.1
44.9Power43.7
1.14xG0.94