Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lecce · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Lecce are 3W-1D-0L in their last 4 (DWWW), averaging 4.75 scored and 0.50 conceded, while Como are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DLWWL), averaging 0.80 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 9 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Lecce hold a 24.2-point power-rating edge (47.8 v 23.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 43.5% in the Coppa Italia, while Lecce holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 59% BTTS chance and 56% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Lecce
Probability
43.5%
Model confidence
43.5%
Lecce has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 19 · GA 2 · avg 4.75/0.50
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80