Leatherheadvs
Hanworth Villa
COMPLETEDEngland · FA Cup · 10/3/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Leatherhead · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Leatherhead 1-0 Hanworth Villa
Original prediction
Leatherhead
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:42 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.24 | 40.4% | 37.7% | -2.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.64 | 24.9% | 27.7% | 2.8 pts |
| Away | 2.61 | 34.7% | 34.6% | -0.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.24 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Leatherhead
Probability
37.7%
Model confidence
37.7%
Leatherhead has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
GF 15 · GA 7 · avg 3.00/1.40