Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Numancia · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-1
Lealtad are 0W-1D-0L in their last 1 (D), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Numancia are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (LLLDD), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 6 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Numancia hold an 18.4-point power-rating edge (37.6 v 56.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 50.2% in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 1, while Numancia holds the strongest overall chance at 50% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 34% BTTS chance and 30% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Numancia
Probability
50.2%
Model confidence
50.2%
Numancia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 1 · GA 1 · avg 1.00/1.00
GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.60/1.60