Leçavs
AD Marco 09
COMPLETEDPortugal · Liga 3 · 10/10/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (13%), 0-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Leça 2-0 AD Marco 09
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 15:57 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.21 | 40.9% | 34.3% | -6.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.05 | 29.6% | 30.6% | 1.0 pts |
| Away | 3.05 | 29.5% | 35.1% | 5.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–013%
- 3.0–112%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
30.6%
Model confidence
35.1%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LeçaWWLWL
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
AD Marco 09WWDWW
GF 5 · GA 0 · avg 1.00/0.00
BTTS 0/5O2.5 0/5
LeçaAD Marco 09
46.7Attack40.0
46.7Defence80.0
46.7Form66.7
47.7Power64.6
0.96xG1.19