Le Puy Footvs
Thionville Lusitanos
COMPLETEDFrance · Ligue 3 · 10/3/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Le Puy Foot · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (9%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Le Puy Foot 1-0 Thionville Lusitanos
Original prediction
Le Puy Foot
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 16:33 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.85 | 49.2% | 40.1% | -9.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.48 | 26.2% | 28.9% | 2.8 pts |
| Away | 3.69 | 24.6% | 31.0% | 6.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.85 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–09%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
Le Puy Foot
Probability
40.1%
Model confidence
40.1%
Le Puy Foot has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00