Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Le Mans · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Le Mans 0-3 Toulouse
Original prediction
Le Mans
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 16 September 2026 at 00:19 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.03 | 31.4% | 40.3% | 8.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.57 | 26.7% | 24.0% | -2.7 pts |
| Away | 2.27 | 41.9% | 35.7% | -6.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Le Mans
Probability
40.3%
Model confidence
40.3%
Le Mans has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Le MansLLWDD
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
ToulouseDLWDL
GF 9 · GA 10 · avg 1.80/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Le MansToulouse
55.6Attack50.0
33.3Defence38.9
33.3Form33.3
43.7Power43.7
1.92xG1.63