Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Le Mans · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Le Mans 2-1 Lorient
Original prediction
Le Mans
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.75 | 34.4% | 36.8% | 2.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.32 | 28.5% | 27.1% | -1.4 pts |
| Away | 2.55 | 37.1% | 36.1% | -1.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.75 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Le Mans
Probability
36.8%
Model confidence
36.8%
Le Mans has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Le MansDDLDL
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
LorientDWLDL
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Le MansLorient
58.3Attack33.3
33.3Defence66.7
25.0Form41.7
42.1Power50.3
1.40xG1.34