Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lens · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Le Mans 2-2 Lens
Original prediction
Lens
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.86 | 19.5% | 32.6% | 13.0 pts |
| Draw | 4.10 | 23.2% | 25.0% | 1.8 pts |
| Away | 1.66 | 57.3% | 42.4% | -14.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.10 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-14.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–28%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Lens
Probability
42.4%
Model confidence
42.4%
Lens has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Le MansDLDLD
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
LensWLLWW
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Le MansLens
55.6Attack66.7
33.3Defence44.4
22.2Form33.3
40.2Power47.3
1.63xG1.65