Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Le Mans · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Le Mans are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WDWLL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Dijon are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DWWDL), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and the power ratings are near level at 53.4 against 54.3. Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 34.7% in the Ligue 3, while Le Mans holds the strongest overall chance at 35% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 50% BTTS chance and 43% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Le Mans
Probability
34.7%
Model confidence
34.7%
Le Mans has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80