Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Le Havre · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Le Havre 1-3 Auxerre
Original prediction
Le Havre
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 00:23 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.28 | 41.6% | 43.3% | 1.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.42 | 27.8% | 26.0% | -1.8 pts |
| Away | 3.10 | 30.6% | 30.7% | 0.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Le Havre
Probability
43.3%
Model confidence
43.3%
Le Havre has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Le HavreLWLDL
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
AuxerreLWWWL
GF 9 · GA 11 · avg 1.80/2.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Le HavreAuxerre
22.2Attack44.4
55.6Defence11.1
11.1Form33.3
32.9Power33.8
1.54xG1.20