LDU Portoviejovs
El Nacional
COMPLETEDEcuador · Liga Pro Serie B · 10/3/2026, 8:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
LDU Portoviejo · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: LDU Portoviejo 0-0 El Nacional, with an exact score probability of 28%.
Prediction record
Final result
LDU Portoviejo 3-2 El Nacional
Original prediction
LDU Portoviejo
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.50 | 59.8% | 54.1% | -5.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.70 | 24.2% | 31.3% | 7.0 pts |
| Away | 5.63 | 15.9% | 14.7% | -1.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.50 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.7 pts
Projected Score
LDU Portoviejo 0–0 El Nacional
Exact score probability: 28%
Predicted outcome
LDU Portoviejo
Probability
54.1%
Model confidence
54.1%
LDU Portoviejo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
GF 3 · GA 9 · avg 0.60/1.80