Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lazio W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-0 (11%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lazio W 2-0 Parma W
Original prediction
Lazio W
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.02 | 44.5% | 50.3% | 5.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.21 | 28.0% | 25.5% | -2.5 pts |
| Away | 3.26 | 27.6% | 24.3% | -3.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.02 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–011%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
Lazio W
Probability
50.3%
Model confidence
50.3%
Lazio W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Lazio WWLWWW
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
Parma WLLDL
GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.75/2.00
BTTS 2/4O2.5 2/4
Lazio WParma W
50.0Attack33.3
58.3Defence22.2
75.0Form11.1
63.2Power26.4
1.98xG0.96