Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lazio · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Lazio are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DWWLD), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Plzen are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DLWWL), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Lazio hold a 10.9-point power-rating edge (69.9 v 59.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 52.5% in the UEFA Europa League, while Lazio holds the strongest overall chance at 52% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 41% BTTS chance and 38% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Lazio
Probability
52.5%
Model confidence
52.5%
Lazio has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20