Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lazio · BTTS No · Over 2.5 · 2-0
Lazio are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWLWD), averaging 2.20 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Nice are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DDWLW), averaging 2.60 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Lazio hold a 41.6-point power-rating edge (69.9 v 28.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 84.2% in the UEFA Europa League, while Lazio holds the strongest overall chance at 84% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 34% BTTS chance and 63% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Lazio
Probability
84.2%
Model confidence
84.2%
Lazio has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 7 · avg 2.20/1.40
GF 13 · GA 4 · avg 2.60/0.80