Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lazio · BTTS No · Over 2.5 · 2-0
Lazio are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WWWWL), averaging 2.40 scored and 0.60 conceded, while FC Porto are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (WWWWD), averaging 3.20 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Lazio hold a 20.4-point power-rating edge (69.9 v 49.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 66.5% in the UEFA Europa League, while Lazio holds the strongest overall chance at 66% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 48% BTTS chance and 56% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Lazio
Probability
66.5%
Model confidence
66.5%
Lazio has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 3 · avg 2.40/0.60
GF 16 · GA 4 · avg 3.20/0.80