CupCup
Friday, 24 July 2026Last updated 12:36
Lauterach

Lauterach

Home
D
15
Full time
Wolfsberger AC

Wolfsberger AC

Away
WDW
Bruno Pezzey Stadion
GoalVio prediction
43% confidence
Wolfsberger AC(43%)
Most likely exact score1-2
Win probability
Lauterach
34%
Draw
23%
Wolfsberger AC
43%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Lauterach
9
Wolfsberger AC
100
Defence
Lauterach
91
Wolfsberger AC
53
Momentum
Lauterach
33
Wolfsberger AC
78
Danger (xG)
Lauterach
0.00
Wolfsberger AC
4.50
Both teams to score
Yes

The model projects 1.42 xG for Lauterach and 1.28 xG for Wolfsberger AC. Wolfsberger AC's projected xG of 1.28 is not sufficient to make scoring a reliable expectation — the model does not see them generating enough high-quality chances to break through.The projected 1-0 scoreline features a clean sheet for one side. With only 1 goal expected in total, the match is projected to be a tight, low-scoring affair where one goal may be enough to decide the contest.

Over 2.5 goals
Yes

The model projects a combined xG of 2.70 — elevated attacking volume. A combined xG below 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is unlikely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture falls below that threshold.The projected 1-0 scoreline stays under the 2.5-goal mark. Only 1 goal is expected in the most likely outcome — the model sees this as a tight, low-scoring contest where one goal could be decisive.The defensive profiles of both sides are stronger than their attacking counterparts — Lauterach's Defensive Stability (91) and Wolfsberger AC's (53) both suggest teams capable of limiting the opposition. When both defences are this organised, the model expects a lower-scoring environment.

xG for (Lauterach)
0.00
avg per match
xG for (Wolfsberger AC)
4.50
avg per match
xG against (Lauterach)
0.00
avg per match
xG against (Wolfsberger AC)
1.20
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
LauterachLauterach
D
Wolfsberger ACWolfsberger AC
WDWWW

Probability breakdown

43% confidence
Lauterach34%
Draw23%
Wolfsberger AC43%

Wolfsberger AC leads with 43% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Lauterach Backed to Win — Model Projects 1-0

Lauterach take on Wolfsberger AC in Cup.

Key factors

: 🏟️ Home Advantage Goalvio applies an 8% xG boost for home teams based on empirical data showing home sides score 10–15% more goals at their own ground. Lauterach's Elo-adjusted home strength gives them a 51% expected score in this fixture — a factor that tips the balance when the underlying numbers are close.
: ⚠️ Upset Risk Wolfsberger AC have won 4 of their last 10 matches — a run of form that keeps this fixture competitive. While Lauterach carry the stronger underlying metrics, Wolfsberger AC's recent results mean the gap is narrower than the headline verdict implies.

Why GoalVio backs this

Lauterach hold a slim but consistent edge across the key input metrics. No single factor clears the threshold required to claim a material advantage, but chance quality, defensive organisation, and recent form all point in the same direction — and when multiple independent signals align, that convergence is the model's case for Lauterach.

Biggest risk: The xG gap between these sides is narrow — a small swing in form, a set-piece goal, or a tactical adjustment could flip the result. The model favours Lauterach, but this is not a fixture where the outcome is a foregone conclusion. If Wolfsberger AC score first, the game becomes genuinely open.

Risk factors

  • Wolfsberger AC are in decent form with 4 wins from their last 10 matches — an upset cannot be ruled out.
  • The xG gap is narrow at 0.14 — a small swing in form or tactics could flip the result.
  • Live conditions — weather, team news, and in-game momentum — can always override statistical projections.

Recent form

Lauterach

Lauterach

D
@ Bischofshofen
16 May 2026
00
Wolfsberger AC

Wolfsberger AC

W
vs SV Kapfenberg
17 Jul 2026
61
D
vs Hradec Králové
13 Jul 2026
11
W
vs Admira Wacker
3 Jul 2026
82
W
@ Železničar Pančevo
30 Jun 2026
20
W
vs WSG Wattens
16 May 2026
20

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Lauterach vs Wolfsberger AC?

GoalVio's model predicts Wolfsberger AC to win with 43% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Lauterach vs Wolfsberger AC?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-2.

Will both teams score in Lauterach vs Wolfsberger AC?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: Yes — both teams are expected to score.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Lauterach vs Wolfsberger AC?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: Yes.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more