Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lausanne · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lausanne 2-3 FC Zurich
Original prediction
Lausanne
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.84 | 50.6% | 51.8% | 1.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.68 | 25.3% | 24.5% | -0.8 pts |
| Away | 3.87 | 24.1% | 23.7% | -0.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Lausanne
Probability
51.8%
Model confidence
51.8%
Lausanne has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LausanneLWDWL
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
FC ZurichLWLWL
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
LausanneFC Zurich
33.3Attack33.3
66.7Defence16.7
41.7Form25.0
50.3Power28.1
1.95xG1.02