Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Lugano · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (14%), 0-1 (12%), 0-3 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Lausanne 0-4 FC Lugano
Original prediction
FC Lugano
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:25 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.67 | 25.4% | 14.5% | -10.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.71 | 25.1% | 19.3% | -5.8 pts |
| Away | 1.88 | 49.5% | 66.2% | 16.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.88 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
16.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–214%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.0–311%
Predicted outcome
FC Lugano
Probability
66.2%
Model confidence
66.2%
FC Lugano has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
LausanneLLDLL
GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.60/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
FC LuganoWDWWW
GF 12 · GA 5 · avg 2.40/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
LausanneFC Lugano
29.2Attack95.8
54.2Defence70.8
25.0Form91.7
39.1Power85.3
0.65xG2.32